Ukraine War Update 5/7/2023 - Mind Games & Kamikaze On The Kremlin
Updates & Recent Drone Attack On The Kremlin
Suicide drones AKA loitering munitions have been the talk of the town lately. I was trying to avoid writing anything about the attack on the Kremlin but it’s so popular now so I guess I have to give a sort of breakdown.
On the morning of May 3rd, the Russian government released footage of a suicide drone hitting the Kremlin. They claimed it was a Ukrainian assassination plot against Putin.
Video:
No one actually knows what happened, we still don’t know the “Who, what, when, where, and whys”. All we know is that this was not meant to kill anyone, this was meant to have a psychological effect. Because even if Putin was having a cigar on the Kremlin roof he would of had time to get away from that drone, the explosion was also relatively small. We may never find out who actually did it, so here’s what we’re going to do. I’m going to lay out the case for and against and you can keep them in the back of your head as we proceed into the future.
The Case that it was Ukraine
It’s an “interesting” case to make but let’s see what I got. First let’s look at the drone, most people are saying it could either have been a Ukrainian UJ-22 or Chinese Mugen 5 drone.
The Mugen supposedly has 7 hours of flight time and the UJ-22 6 hours. The average flight time from Donetsk to Moscow is about 1 hr 25 mins, so I guess technically they should be able to reach Moscow if their radio range is long enough. But to be able to get past jamming and air defenses around Moscow and touch the Kremlin is a huge deal. Ukraine either found a huge vulnerability in Russia’s air defense and that is a Huge Deal, or Ivan was just asleep on the job that night. Hitting the Kremlin would send a message to Putin that “we can also reach out and touch you”. While simultaneously putting fear in Russian citizens keeping them in their houses on victory day May 9.
Would they not be scared of escalation?
No not really, they didn’t target any Russian civilians only barely hit the kremlin. Russia has pretty much threw the kitchen sink at Ukraine (weapon wise). Ballistic missiles, thermobaric weapons, incendiary weapons. There’s not much escalation left in that domain except targeting more civilians and Nuclear. All that for a drone that didn’t kill anyone? Nah.
The Case It was Russia
This could also have been a false flag by Russia, they’re not new to it (cough cough 2nd Chechen war). Why would they do it? Well, for internal propaganda. meant to piss off the Russian people and keep their anger pointed at Ukraine and not Putin and also potentially bolster recruitment numbers.
It could also have been done by a third party within Russia acting on their own, anything is possible. We don’t really know, and possibly never will.
Brain Games
This is a crucial time in the war, Ukraine is saying they’re going to do a huge offensive with all their new fancy NATO gear and training. This puts Russia in an interesting position, trying to find out where the offensive is actually coming from. This is crucial to figure out so you know how to position your troops and equipment.
Let’s say Ukraine attacks to the north and most of your troops are to the south. By the time you realize this and move everyone north, Ukraine would have already broke through your lines. If you remember, we’ve seen this exact thing happen in the Kherson offensive. Ukraine telegraphed an offensive to the south and actually attacked there (as you should) forcing Russia to defend it with more troops. After that they immediately launched an offensive to the north and had a massive breakthrough. Russia certainly does not want that to happen again, they appear to be building fortifications and laying mines so they have an easier time defending.
Building fortifications is not the worst idea. What fortifications do is slow down your enemy and or force them to take an alternate route. If the Ukrainian offensive is slowed it gives Russia enough time to reinforce that area.
The Problem with Defense
One problem with Russia seemingly wanting to play defense is that time is against them. The more they wait, the more equipment and training Ukrainian troops receive from NATO, they’re just getting stronger and stronger over time. So unless they’re betting on NATO support going away, they better start moving.
Also, defense is not the best position to be in. The person attacking get’s to pick the exact time and exact place that’s favorable to them. That’s a lot of power you’re giving to your enemy. Just like you can shape the terrain to your favor on defense the enemy can also set the conditions that he wants for his upcoming offense. Ukraine is doing exactly just that with their recent drone attacks.
But, we’ll see… Maybe Putin has something up his sleeve, maybe the Ukraine offensive is just a bluff.
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